The predictions of how many jobs will be replaced or created by the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) keep on coming.
The latest from PricewaterhouseCooper (PwC) says: “We estimate that AI and related technologies, such as robots, drones and autonomous vehicles could displace around 26% of existing jobs in China over the next two decades, rather higher than our 20% estimate for the UK, but could create significantly more additional jobs in China through boosting productivity and real income and spending levels. Our central estimate is that the net impact could be a boost to employment in China of around 12%, equivalent to around 90 million additional jobs over the next two decades. Read PwC’s report.
How reliable are these predictions?
“Anybody professing to have a decent estimate of how many jobs will be displaced, change, modified by 2030 needs to have a look at themselves in the mirror,” says Kit Cox, Enate’s CEO and automation industry expert.
“Let’s bear in mind the economists (baring a handful), failed to predict the 2008 economic crash, still give fairly flaky growth predictions and yet we’re facing a fourth industrial revolution with utterly revolutionary technology. Nobody can have a sensible numeric prediction on the outcomes," adds Kit.
“All we can really say is life is going to be a bit different, consumers are going to behave a bit differently and we’re going to need to educate people a bit differently.
“We’re going to need to get away from cramming knowledge into people’s heads and giving them real, core human capabilities. Beyond that, we’re all hoping, guessing and, in my case, being excited about it.”
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Image used courtesy of bfishadow via Flickr licensing (CC by 2.0).